On Affordable Housing, careful of that Kool-Aid, do the Math!!!
What math? Do your own analysis of the affordable housing information. For instance, 20 years ago was the proportion of the population that couldn’t afford the “median” house in Wenatchee the same as it is right now? Of course not, so don’t make that a fixed number for the next 20 years. Assume the ratio of median income to median home prices will fluctuate with the markets. We’re a historical high for median home prices right now relative to income. You might want to assume a more average number over the last twenty years for your analysis rather than the number the consultant used for the current situation.
Sometimes, a polished presentation can get folks to buy into something hook, line and sinker. Maybe the presentation supports a position that was suspected, so it is not questioned. Maybe the presentation reflects the desires of the special interests that specified the consultant. I don’t expect them to question it.
In this Wenatchee World Editorial, the often thoughtful editors on the 26th of April wrote a Call to Action on Housing from this symposium and report. They stated:
We have statistics. Now we need to go to work.
Of course, if we think about it, we can find statistics that support almost any argument. Statistics can also be very useful, if their background and derivation is understood. But, when we take some broad statistics, like census data, and start dividing them up into categories and projecting forward 20 years from a single, unusual point in time, there is a HUGE margin for error.
In my earlier post, I commented about how the supposedly “Independent” consultant is truly anything but. I maintain that this consultant was chosen by specific subsidized housing industry groups looking for a specific outcome. That outcome was skillfully provided. This group of consultants does create wonderful reports and presentations and they are truly masteful at their trade. Be aware, their trade is getting funding for subsidized housing.
The presentation from the symposium is available here. These are the entire Housing Market Overview and Revenue Resources links as well. Read them, but don’t drink the Kool Aid! Instead, do your own math! After all, you’ll be the one paying the taxes, not the “independent” consultant.
Go to the census data yourself. I’ll help. Poverty data and income data can be found online. You can find some interesting tidbits. You can see income data by age group. Almost 30% of low income people are 18 to 25. That’s not an age group that is usually buying a home. In fact, many are students whose income is low because they are going to school. Maybe Wenatchee needs some student housing?
My point is that a much greater understanding of the basis of these numbers is necessary before I would be willing to tax myself to pay for someone else’s housing. In case the message hasn’t been heard locally and across the state, OUR TAXES ARE HIGH ENOUGH! Rather than paying for somebody’s house, would we be better off making colleges and training more available so people can earn more money and afford nicer homes?
I couldn’t find the article, but I seem to remember that nearly 40% of the people below the poverty level today will not be there two years from now. They will have finished school or training or gotten that business going and won’t be below poverty anymore. Do they really need us to build them housing?
Are there some real problems? Sure, a 1.8% vacancy rate for rental units is a sign of a very tight rental market. It only takes 25 units to get the number to a more typical 5% vacancy rate, which could be a single project or a few smaller ones. I expect, even without taxing ourselves, that number will be much different a couple of years from now.
Do we need a whole new set of taxes for affordable housing? I wonder. Depending on the assumptions I make when I do the math, what may look like a big problem right now may not even be an issue at all in a few years.
Discussion Area - Leave a Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.